Resources
December 5, 2023

A resilient business in the new economy

We are living in times of unprecedented change. The economic landscape is shifting beneath our feet, with demographic changes, technological advancements, and fluctuations in global markets. But even in a turbulent time like this, I see it as an opportunity for hope.

You might have heard economists talk about the challenges ahead due to these shifts. It’s true: We are facing a unique set of challenges, especially with the government’s increasing net interest payments, the aging population, and the ongoing impact of policies like quantitative easing. These are not small matters. They have injected trillions of dollars into our economy, propping it up in ways we haven’t seen before.

Then there’s the pandemic, which turned our world upside down. It forced us to pause, rethink, and in many ways, reset. The government’s response through PPP loans, as one policy change among many, was a testament to the times we live in, creating money out of thin air and injecting it into our economy with untold repercussions.

But here’s the thing. These challenges, as daunting as they may seem, are also opportunities. They are a call to action for us to be more resilient, more innovative, and more forward-thinking in our approach to business and life.

The concept of resilience has never been more important. We all need to be prepared for a new era, not just for the challenges we can foresee but for the unpredictable ones as well. Resilience is about having the agility to adapt, the wisdom to see opportunities where others see obstacles, and the courage to take calculated risks.

In our businesses as well as our family enterprises, this means being well-positioned and well-prepared. It’s about having processes in place, a clear vision for the future, and the flexibility to pivot when necessary. It’s about building a legacy that can withstand the ebbs and flows of economic cycles.

As we look ahead, particularly toward 2024, it’s essential to approach the future with a mindset of creating opportunities. This doesn’t mean being defensive or fearful. Rather, it means being proactive and strategic. Whether it’s reserving cash, setting up a succession plan, or simply staying informed and engaged, every step we take toward resilience is a step toward a brighter future.

Remember, resilience is not just about surviving. As cliche as it sounds, it’s really about thriving. It’s about finding the strength and wisdom within ourselves and our communities to navigate these uncertain times with grace and confidence.

As Charlie Munger once said, it’s not the most intelligent who succeeds but about the best positioned for an uncertain future. Let’s embrace this wisdom and work together toward building resilient businesses and families that can not only weather the storms but also emerge stronger and more vibrant than ever.

Check out this week’s podcast and let me know what you think by replying to this email.

Paul Spencer

What exactly can we expect in this new economy?

In this video, I provide an overview of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Bureau of Fiscal Service (nerdy, I know). I discuss the importance of understanding the economics of things as we plan for the future. I highlight the fiscal year 2023 and the income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes involved. I also discuss the outlays, deficit, and the non-discretionary expenses such as Social Security, Healthcare, and National Defense. Finally, I touch on the net interest and its potential impact on our debt.

Here’s the fiscal report referenced in the video if you want to geek out on the details. You can change the date in the url to easily navigate to previous months and years.

Who cares? Watch the video to hear why it matters.

Resources

Drive Media House

My friend, Stephen, started Drive right out of high school and has stewarded it into a fresh and exciting production company. You have got to watch The Drive Real, so much fun! Crank it up! Sit back and be prepared to be mesmerized! You will enjoy it. I promise. Here is another production they call a brand narrative. Good stuff!

Check it out here

Interest-Only Loans Helped Commercial Property Boom. Now They’re Coming Due

As we discussed business cycles and the typical economic rise and fall, I wonder if this is just normal or part of something different. For reference, $1.5 trillion accounts for 33% of the annual US Receipts, or just nearly the second largest income just behind SSN at $1.6T. Now that is a lot of debt burden!

Read on WSJ

Why More Baby Boomers Are Sliding Into Homelessness

We’re experiencing a time when the largest portion of our population is seniors. With rising inflation, poor savings, and lack of family support there will be a large portion of our seniors who will struggle mightily. This is just one of those stories.

Read on WSJ

A resilient business in the new economy

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